First column for Slam will be up tomorrow. I will post a link when it’s available. I’m pumped!!
October 5, 2009
Two new fantasy articles
I just published two fantasy basketball articles to bleacherreport and vype. Check them out.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/266818-fantasy-basketball-preview-2k10-center-position
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/266834-fantasy-basketball-preview-2k10-guard-positions
http://www.vype.com/general/86556
September 24, 2009
NFL Week Three: Studs, Duds, and Fantasy Freaks
The first two weeks of football season can make or break a fantasy owner. Some owners are 2-0, riding high, and nothing can stop them. Others are 1-1, which is respectable, but there’s work to be done. Some get off to an 0-2 start and suddenly they find themselves in the same boat as the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and St. Louis Rams. Those 1-1 and 0-2 guys often decide to blow up their teams. Whoever was taken in the first or second round is traded for someone off to a fast start. It’s now or never, time to hit the panic button and hope for the best, right? Wrong. Take my advice, read on, and fantasy lovers of all records will improve their squads.
Studs for Week Three
Drew Brees vs. Buffalo- Brees has been on an absolute tear to start the season, and is unquestionably the best fantasy QB in football. He goes up against the up-and-down Bills this week, who allowed Byron Leftwich and the lowly Bucs to go for 296 passing yards and three touchdowns. Expect over 300 passing yards for Brees to go with three to four passing TDs. On the other side of the matchup…
Fred Jackson vs. New Orleans- This is Jackson’s last game as a starter before Marshawn Lynch returns from suspension, and against the Saints porous run D, look for him to have a huge stat-line. Fred has already had two monster games, so there’s no reason to think he will stop here. Plus, you’ve got to figure he wants to give the Bills one last glimpse of what he’s capable of accomplishing as the feature back. I foresee 120 yards and two touchdowns…
Clinton Portis vs. Detroit- Portis is off to an uncharacteristically bad start thus far, but that will end against the Lions. Washington has had tons of trouble finding the end zone, so Clinton’s usual high fantasy numbers have been down. If he can’t break out against the Lions, he never will. Portis should go for 150+ yards and two scores.
Matt Forte vs. Seattle- One of last year’s fantasy MVPs, Matt Forte has been held in check going into week three. He played against the best defense in football last week (Pittsburgh), so it’s not time to abandon ship. Seattle is missing QB Matt Hasselbeck, which means the Seahawks defense will probably be on the field more than usual since they lack their leader on offense. Forte can easily wear Seattle down. My crystal ball says 100 yards rushing, a rushing TD, and a receiving TD.
Duds
Cedric Benson vs. Pittsburgh- If Benson goes crazy against the Steelers, I will be ready to crown him fantasy MVP. I’d put the chances of that happening at zero, though. Benson has played well, and is even ranked 13th in Yahoo! fantasy football leagues. He’s probably on pace for a better season than anyone could have imagined, but he won’t score a touchdown in week three.
Willis McGahee vs. Cleveland- Similarly to Benson, McGahee is off to a mind-numbing start (ranked fifth in Yahoo! fantasy football leagues). I don’t care if he’s playing the Cleveland Browns this week, he won’t keep it up. Baltimore has been swapping Willis with Ray Rice, and McGahee just happens to have gotten the bulk of the touchdowns. Ray Rice still seems like the RB with the greater upside, and I’d trust him to have a better game than McGahee this time around.
Chris Johnson vs. New York Jets- This one is definitely dicey. A popular upset pick right now is Tennessee over the Jets, and for good reason. With a loss, the Titans fall to 0-3, and would have a pretty steep mountain to climb if they wanted to eventually get back into Wild Card contention. This all points to another gigantic performance for Chris Johnson, who single-handily won many fantasy matchups last week. Problem is, the Jets have been absolutely stellar on defense, and their confidence is at an all-time high. The Titans already have a pretty terrible passing game, and with all-pro corner Darrelle Revis manning the Jets secondary, I doubt Jeff Fisher will try anything fancy. That means New York can focus on stopping the Titans running game, and Chris Johnson could be in store for a repeat of his week one stats (57 yards, no TDs).
Kevin Smith vs. Washington- The Skins run defense has been nothing short of stellar, so anyone that owns Kevin Smith shouldn’t have high expectations for him. In fact, I’d bench him ASAP if you have a solid replacement. Calvin Johnson will probably have a great game, but nothing will develop on the ground.
There’s a pot of gold in the horizon…
Don’t give up on these guys yet. They have disappointed, but keep them in your lineup for week three and reap the rewards.
- Brandon Marshall- He is finally getting up to speed with the offense. He’s also too talented to be held down forever.
- Santana Moss- As you can see, anyone facing the Lions usually plays pretty darn well. Moss will pick it up.
- Tom Brady- He’s Tom Brady. A man amongst boys. Don’t give up on him after a game against an incredibly tough D (New York Jets).
- Michael Turner- Quiet start, and he might not break out of his slump against New England. It would be foolish to bench Turner, however. He was a top three running back last year, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do that again in 2009.
- Dwayne Bowe- Bowe has caught two touchdowns in two games, but his yardage is pretty awful (48 ypg). With Cassell looking much healthier than he did in week two, Bowe should get back on track.
Drop Him like T.O. Drops Passes
Sometimes, you need to disassociate yourself from a fantasy player. A few of these guys aren’t worth dropping yet, but they certainly deserve a benching until further notice.
- LaDainian Tomlinson- He’s banged up, and I said in my AFC preview that he was probably close to done. Don’t trust him for the next few weeks, at least.
- LenDale White- Maybe those extra hamburgers and shots of tequila were making White a touchdown vulture. Whatever the reason, he’s been terrible. Bench him this week, and drop him by week five if he hasn’t made a dent in your fantasy score.
- Michael Crabtree- Do I really need to explain this one?
- Joseph Addai- Addai’s production has continuously gone down the gutter, and he’s been injury prone as of the last few years. Rookie backup Donald Brown could start gaining on him in the carries department.
September 19, 2009
2009-2010 NFL Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
Third Seeded Indianapolis Colts Over Sixth Seeded New York Jets
Too much experience for Indianapolis here- Mark Sanchez should win rookie of the year, but that doesn’t mean he can knock out future hall of fame QB Peyton Manning. Sanchez could very well struggle with the stakes so high, and if that were to happen, could anyone really blame him? Even if the Jets lose, the season still has to be looked at as a huge success, especially since Mark took his team to the playoffs, and Brett Favre didn’t.
Fourth Seeded San Diego Chargers Over Fifth Seeded Tennessee Titans
When playoff time roles around, rushing attempts typically come fewer than in the regular season. A ground game happens to be Tennessee’s bread and butter, not to mention they can’t keep up with the scoring onslaught the Chargers can unload at anytime. Philip Rivers has what it takes to lead the Chargers to victory, and I actually think Norv Turner won’t do enough to lose San Diego this game (no, I am not the biggest Norv fan).
Third Seeded Green Bay Packers Over Sixth Seeded New Orleans Saints
If you want some major offensive fireworks, look no further than a Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints match up. The final score could resemble a combination of Greg Jennings and Jeremy Shockey’s jersey numbers, which happens to be 85 and 88, respectively. While there’s no doubting Drew Brees and his talents, I do question what effect nerves will have on the Saints receivers, with the exception to that rule being Marques Colston. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers has two all-star receivers and a much better running game. Ultimately, that should be the deciding factor, because defense certainly won’t be.
Fifth Seeded Washington Redskins Over Fourth Seeded Arizona Cardinals
Sorry, Cardinals fans, but the run has to stop here. Arizona made it to the Super Bowl as a 9-7 team last year, but it doesn’t seem very probable for such an event to repeat itself. The Cardinals will once again be exposed to an incredibly weak division for eight games, while the Redskins will develop themselves in the tough-as-nails NFC East. The Skins won’t be able to shut down Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but they should be able to at least slow them down. Clinton Portis is more than capable of putting Washington’s offense on his back, and Chris Cooley is always a major factor.
Divisional Round
First Seeded New England Patriots Over Third Seeded San Diego Chargers
The New England Patriots are like a Lamborghini sports car- they’re a well-oiled, efficient machine that everyone loves to stare at. The Chargers resemble more of a new Hummer- they look impressive from all angles, but once you ride in one for a while, it becomes obvious that you purchased a gas-guzzler that will eventually burn out. In the divisional round of the playoffs, San Diego will have nothing left in the tank. At some point, LT’s injury will take a toll on him. Darren Sproles is still an unproven commodity at the starting RB position. More than anything though, the Patriots are proven winners, and Tom Brady is one of the greatest football players ever. Until the Chargers manage to make it to an elusive Super Bowl, I can’t pick them to advance.
Second Seeded Pittsburgh Steelers Over Third Seeded Indianapolis Colts
While Peyton Manning and company have a more potent offense than the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s top five defense will be enough to defeat the Colts. Mike Tomlin has already shown what he can do in the playoffs, while Jim Sorgi is a first year head coach. That’s a pretty underrated factor in the postseason, and it could prove fatal for Indy.
First Seeded New York Giants Over Fifth Seeded Washington Redskins
These guys will know each other pretty well by the divisional round of the playoffs, and the Giants should naturally possess an edge with home field advantage. The Redskins will more than likely struggle against a high-caliber defense like New York’s, while Eli Manning will eventually crack Washington’s secondary for a few touchdowns. In a battle between NFC East rivals, a couple of scores is all you need to win.
Third Seeded Green Bay Packers Over Second Seeded Atlanta Falcons
“The Pack Attack” (a phrase which I hereby copyright if it isn’t already used by people in Green Bay) is no fluke, and Aaron Rodgers will drop thirty points on Atlanta before they can even blink. Unlike the other teams that I predicted to have first-round byes, the Falcons have very little playoff experience. Matt Ryan will struggle after a week of downtime, while Green Bay should pick up right where they left off. Assuming Atlanta makes some off-season moves in the summer of 2010, they could be Super Bowl contenders for 2010-11. In year two of the Matt Ryan experiment, however, Atlanta will come up short.
Championship Games
First Seeded New England Patriots Over Second Seeded Pittsburgh Steelers
The two best AFC teams of this century finally get a chance to battle it out in a heavyweight battle. The last time the two squads faced off was in 2004, in which the Patriots won 41-27. Expect a repeat win for New England this time around too. Tom Brady is on a mission to claim yet another Super Bowl ring, and Pittsburgh’s offense may prove too stagnant to keep up with the Pats.
Third Seeded Green Bay Packers Over First Seeded New York Giants
Not even the mighty Giants will be able to stop Green Bay’s offensive attack. The Packers could be an enigma team that switches off from week to week with their newly installed 3-4 defense, but by the conference championship game, they will put the pieces together to stop Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs.
Super Bowl
New England Patriots Over Green Bay Packers
I need to emphasis two points here. First, I am aware that my Super Bowl features the same two teams as Bill Simmons; however, I had these predictions done far before his column was released, so he actually copied me. Secondly, saying the Patriots will win it all may not be a “sexy” pick, but like most dynasties, New England can’t be held down for too long. Tom Brady won’t allow himself or his teammates to lose two straight super bowls, simple as that. Green Bay will stay in the game, but that’s not enough to beat the Patriots this time around.
